Theory of change
How we expect change to happen, and what we are assuming
SWEEF’s theory of change explains how the Foundation expects its work to produce lasting economic outcomes for Somali women, and states the conditions the logic depends on.
The chain
From problem to long-term impact
- Problem
Exclusion, not incapacity
Somali women carry major productive work but are excluded from finance, assets, markets and institutions.
- Intervention
Delivered together
Skills + assets + finance + enterprise + markets, delivered together and sequenced.
- Intermediate change
Income and employment
Higher and more stable income; employment created for others.
- Outcome
Economic resilience
Households and enterprises withstand shocks.
- Long-term impact
Voice and power
Leadership and decision-making power in the household, enterprise and community.
Stated plainly
If, then, because
If
Somali women gain market-relevant skills, control over productive assets, access to appropriate finance, viable enterprises, reliable market linkages and a stronger voice in decision-making — delivered together rather than in isolation —
Then
they will build businesses and livelihoods that generate higher and more stable incomes, create employment for others, and withstand economic and climate shocks,
Because
the primary constraint on women’s economic participation in Somalia is not capability or effort, but systematic exclusion from the resources, systems and institutions that convert work into income and assets into growth.
Underlying assumptions
Six conditions the logic depends on
SWEEF monitors and tests these throughout implementation, and adapts its approach where they do not hold. Stating them makes the theory falsifiable rather than merely persuasive.
Women’s economic participation is constrained primarily by access to resources, systems and opportunity, not by ability, ambition or effort.
Training alone rarely changes income; skills convert into earnings only when assets, finance, markets and enabling institutions are available at the same time.
Markets for the products and services women produce exist, and can be reached with the right quality, volume, aggregation and linkage support.
Households, community leaders and men can be engaged constructively, so that women’s increased income translates into increased decision-making power rather than increased burden or risk.
Government institutions, financial service providers and private-sector actors are willing to work with women’s enterprises where a credible business case is demonstrated.
Operating conditions permit sustained access to target locations, and interventions can be adapted where they do not.
Expected transformation
Nine linked shifts
The sequence SWEEF expects to observe where the model works as designed.
- 01
More skills
- 02
More assets
- 03
Greater finance
- 04
Stronger enterprises
- 05
Better markets
- 06
Higher income
- 07
More employment
- 08
Resilience
- 09
Voice & leadership
A statement of intent, not of achievement
This describes the transformation SWEEF is designed to produce. SWEEF was established on 1 September 2026 and has not yet delivered programs, so no part of this sequence has been observed or measured.
Test the logic
A theory of change is only useful if someone checks it.
SWEEF welcomes research partners and evaluators prepared to test these assumptions rather than confirm them.